My Oscar Picks for 2006

I'm off to the Virginia Electoral Board Association (VEBA) annual meeting this weekend, and I may not have an opportunity to blog while I'm there. So I want to make sure I post my Academy Award picks before the ceremony on Sunday.

In the interest of saving time and bandwidth, I'll forego explaining my choices. (I'll admit, in some cases, I am being gratuitously provocative and mischievous -- I won't say in which cases.) I don't win anything if I'm correct; this is just for fun; no wagering, please.

One point about the Academy Awards that a lot of commentators seem to miss: You'll see a lot of criticism that Hollywood is out of touch with America, since the top nominated films haven't earned a lot of money, which translates into a lot of people filling the seats to watch them. (GayPatriot, for instance, as paraphrased by James Taranto on "Best of the Web," notes that Brokeback Mountain "had grossed a mere $67.8 million domestically, less than a quarter of the $285.3 million for The Chronicles of Narnia.”)

Isn't this beside the point? The Oscars are supposed to reward artistic merit and technical achievement in film. They are not a popularity contest. For a popularity contest, we have the People's Choice Awards. The People's Choice Awards are to the Oscars what the homecoming queen is to the valedictorian.

Kathy Bates, tonight's guest on"The Late, Late Show with Craig Ferguson" agrees: "The Academy Awards are about quality in the art of filmmaking," she says, not about the blockbusters that make the most money. (Craig Ferguson, by the way, is the smartest and wittiest of the late-night chat show hosts. He deserves a far wider audience, if only for his well-crafted, practically cerebral opening monologues.)

So, having got that off my chest, here are my Oscar picks for 2006. Comments, criticisms, and catcalls are all welcome.

Actor in a Leading Role
Will win: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
Should win: David Straitharn, Good Night, and Good Luck

Actor in a Supporting Role
Will win: Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man
Should win: Matt Dillon, Crash

Actress in a Leading Role
Will win: Felicity Huffman, Transamerica
Should win: Felicity Huffman, Transamerica

Actress in a Supporting Role
Will win: Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain
Should win: Amy Adams, Junebug

Animated Feature
Will win: Wallace & Gromit in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit
Should win: Wallace & Gromit in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit

Art Direction
Will win: Memoirs of a Geisha
Should win: Good Night, and Good Luck

Cinematography
Will win: Brokeback Mountain
Should win: Good Night, and Good Luck

Costume Design
Will win: Memoirs of a Geisha
Should win: Mrs. Henderson Presents

Directing
Will win: Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
Should win: George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck

Documentary Feature
Will win: March of the Penguins
Should win: Murderball

Documentary Short Subject
Will win: God Sleeps in Rwanda
Should win: The Mushroom Club

Film Editing
Will win: Cinderella Man
Should win: Cinderella Man

Foreign Language Film
Will win: Tsotsi (South Africa)
Should win: Sophie Scholl: The Final Days (Germany)

Makeup
Will win: The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe
Should win: Star Wars, Episode III: Revenge of the Sith

Music (Score)
Will win: Brokeback Mountain
Should win: The Constant Gardener

Music (Song)
Will win: "It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp" from Hustle and Flow
Should win: "Travelin' Thru," from Transamerica

Best Picture
Will win: Crash
Should win: Good Night, and Good Luck

Short Film (Animated)
Will win: Badgered
Should win: 9

Short Film (Live Action)
Will win: Our Time Is Up
Should win: Six Shooter

Sound Editing
Will win: King Kong
Should win: War of the Worlds

Sound Mixing
Will win: Walk the Line
Should win: Walk the Line

Visual Effects
Will win: The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe
Should win: King Kong

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Will win: Brokeback Mountain
Should win: Capote

Writing (Original Screenplay)
Will win: Crash
Should win: The Squid and the Whale

We'll see how accurate these predictions turn out to be next Sunday night. Jon Stewart, it's your cue!